Dragon's aggression gone too far? - The Diaoyu Dispute

Can a group of islands, no matter how important, be worth all the trouble China and Japan are getting into? Territorial claims and controversies are nothing new when it comes to China- Be it Philippines, Taiwan, India or Vietnam, the Chinese have always preferred laying claims to trivial pieces of rocks with a pinch of unwarranted aggression added to their taste over the warmth and benefits of cordial relationships with the neighbors. And we all had pretty much gotten used to that now haven’t we? Aggressive patrols, denying visas and releasing intimidating comments were common weapons for Chinese leadership to reinforce their claims on what they consider is theirs by whatever logic that suits them. But the recent move of China, to announce the air defense identification zone over the region encompassing the Diaoyu Islands has packed a new punch in this old game. It’s like a brand new “Warmongering 2.0” with improved aggression promising a far more interesting global response and consequences. It’s important indeed to notice the difference in Chinese stance here.  For example, in Indian context, the Chinese often make inroads into Indian Territory to highlights their claims in regions like daulat beg oldi and aksai chin. But then the Indians launch counter patrols and both sides eventually cool down and go back to the status quo. Same was the story with Japan earlier, the Chinese would sneak peek into the Diaoyu waters when the Japanese were not looking and Japan would do the same, and the same chain of events kept getting repeated with monotonous statements like “China urges Japan to respect China’s sovereignty” etc- without any remarkable escalation.

So what does it tell you? The move tells you about China’s exponentially enhanced confidence in its military capability. A child can tell you that the natural response of Japan will be to reject the restrictions imposed by China through this Air defense zone and they will keep flying their military jets into the controversial airspace. It is very much probable that any military adventure in this region can now quickly escalate into “an act of war”. Let get involved in the hypothetic. If history is any aid, it is quite reasonable to assume that Japan will not be the first one to take any military action. In worst case scenario, the Chinese will shoot down a Japanese surveillance drone or something to which the Japanese will pay back in kind. This is something the Chinese leadership must have already thought about while declaring this air defense zone. Their decision to go ahead with this declaration anyway, shows how confident they are of being able to handle any kind of military aggression in this area. And we have hints in this regard – they displayed their nuclear submarine fleet for the first time in 40 years! The Chinese jets stole the show at Dubai air show. Operating three jets simultaneously from the Air craft carrier Liaoning etc…they have all been subtle hints that the Chinese are confident of their military prowess in the area.

But there’s more to this love story. China is confident of handling Japan alright, but has it considered the presence of Uncle Sam enough? After the World War 2, United States disarmed Japan and prohibited it from keeping its own defense forces, and also signed a document which allowed the United States to maintain military bases all over Japan. After half a century, this treaty has proved to be a boon for the Japan. Japan and United States are closer than ever and external security of Japan is now almost officially the responsibility of Washington itself. Anyway, important point is that, Diaoyu islands are also a part of the region which was vowed to be protected by the Americans under the treaty of 1952. Not only this means that US considers diaoyu islands an integral part of Japan, but it also signifies that any action unilaterally taken by China on diaoyu islands will also be an action directly against the United States. The Eagle has wasted no time in registering firm opposition to this move. Even before the United States policy makers could formally issue statements against the ADIZ set up by China, two B-52 bombers had already flown over the ADIZ without informing Beijing about their presence. South Korean  and Japanese aircrafts followed the act and Japanese coast guard carried on with their usual patrols along the Diaoyu coastline. It will be hard to say if B-52 bombers were flown through the ADIZ merely to send a stern message to the dragon to not cross the line, or if it was done to check any additional deployments and infrastructure put up in place by China to enforce the guidelines of ADIZ.

Conclusion? Perhaps China needs to reconsider its stance. You should play with fire when you know you can handle the heat. Even if China does acquire the islands by force, (well…) it will have to pay the price of upsetting all its neighbours. And ask any five year old boy, is it worth all this trouble? Maybe The Socialists need to see the long term effects of their aggression. They should know that unnecessary quibbling over a small group of rocks is not worth putting the years of hard work in improving the foreign relations into garbage bin. And whoa!...that too when they know that their entire economy is based on trade with the countries they are messing with. I learnt it while playing chess – one wrong move, and the game wraps up even before you know it. 

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Russian Intervention: Role of Russia in war of 1971

India and Russia have had such warm and extremely friendly relations that it often surprises me as to why this political and strategic warmth  in relations hasn't been able to instil a greater interaction between the Indian and Russian people in general. I mean we make everything from guns to supersonic fighter jets with the Russians but I barely come across an Indian who wants to go to Russia for higher education or who has a Russian girlfriend for that matter! But then, Britain and United States share good relations as far as military is concerned and how often do you see an American praising England? So, I guess it is nothing abnormal between us and the Russians.

Indian jets bombing Karachi Harbour during the war of '71

The world in 1960-70s was very different from what it is now. It was extremely bipolar - There were Pro US countries, and there were Pro Soviet countries. India was of course the founding member of the non aligned group, but then the rest of the world judged India to be inclined more or less towards the Soviet side. On the other hand, Pakistan was a close ally of USA, already a member of the American lead military pacts - CENTO and SEATO. So, India's declaration of war with Pakistan, put the entire pro-US section as unease.  During the first week of the war, US had restricted itself to supplying arms and ammunition to Pakistan and putting diplomatic pressure on India by sending numerous letters and calls to Indira Gandhi. Their view, however, was challenged when Indian forces restricted the Pakistan's Navy to the ports of Karachi and carried out totally successful air raids and land attacks deep Inside East Pakistan. It was then, that Nixon was forced to think that diplomacy was not going to be enough to stop India, and military force was considered. The plan was to move all possible military forces towards India and generate fear in Indian political command to force them into negotiations. One of the most potent forces in the United States, the Task Force 74 led by the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise sailed into the bay of Bengal. And why will the Britain, strong supporter  of United States, get left behind? A carrier battle group lead by carrier HMS Eagle was moved towards the bay of Bengal. The Turks were asked to fly jets over Indian soil. Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia too had either agreed, or were in process of surrounding India with whatever they had - ships, jets, anything. Nixon had been counting strongly on China. Many letters were addressed to the Chinese political top notch to intervene in the situation. United States wanted some sort of Chinese involvement in the war to build pressure on India. Desperation was clear in what he shared with Kissinger "All they've got to do is move something. Move a division. You know, move some trucks. Fly some planes. You know, some symbolic act. We're not doing a goddamn thing, Henry, you know that." But the Chinese didn't even warn the Indians. They decided it was not in their interest to be nosy. 

And what happened? India liberated Bangladesh, defeated Pakistan badly and established her regional supremacy. With 'almost' every nation criticizing India's decision to go on the war, United States and Britain moving their forces into Indian Ocean, hostile neighbour on the north eastern border and an ongoing war to deal with, how was India able to turn the table to its advantage? Because, we had a good friend. A really valuable friend who understood and shared the cause for which we had gone to war. Who said she'll take care of things and she did. Things could have been very different if China had entered the war. But Soviet Union had assured Indira Gandhi that if Chinese decided in favour of any misadventure, they'll intervene and contain China from the North. On December 10, Nixon instructed Kissinger to ask the Chinese to move some troops toward the Indian frontier. 'Threaten to move forces or move them, Henry, that's what they must do now.' China feared any action on India might attract Soviet aggression. At this, US assured China that any action taken by Soviet Union will be countered by US to protect China. Pakistani army had somehow maintained their position and resisted Indian advancement. They believed China is preparing to open the Northern front which will slow down or completely stop the Indian advancement. In fact, the myth of Chinese activity was also communicated to Pakistan's army to boost their moral, to keep their will to fight and hope alive. Lieutenant General A A K Niazi, the Pakistani army commander in Dhaka, was informed: "NEFA front has been activated by Chinese, although the Indians, for obvious reasons, have not announced it." But Beijing never did. Chinese could not risk a war with Russians. 

India's aircraft carrier 'INS Vikrant' in operation during the 1971 war. It effectively kept Pakistani Navy holed up in Karachi Harbour.

Russia had been with India all the way. In fact they were a step ahead of the Americans and the English. Remember HMS Eagle was moving towards the Indian coasts? Well the Russians had been tracking their movement already. Tee Hee. Confidential - The Commander of the Military Intelligence Service Gen. Pyotr Ivashutin. "The Soviet Intelligence has reported that the English operative connection has come nearer to territorial India, water led by an aircraft carrier “Eagle” [On December 10]. For helping friendly India, Soviet government has directed a group of ships under the command of contr-admiral V. Kruglyakov."

Vladimir Kruglyakov, the former (1970-1975) Commander of the 10th Operative Battle Group (Pacific Fleet) remembers:

"I was ordered by the Chief Commander to track the British Navy's advancement, I positioned our battleships in the Bay of Bengal and watched for the British carrier "Eagle".

But Soviet Union didn't have enough force to resist if they encountered the British Carrier. Therefore, to support the existing Soviet fleet in the Bay of Bengal, Soviet cruisers, destroyers and nuclear submarines, equipped with anti ship missiles, were sent from Vladivostok.

In reaction English Navy retreated and went South to Madagascar.

Soon the news of American carrier Enterprise and USS Tripoli's advancement towards Indian water came.

USS Enterprise

V. Kruglyakov “ I had obtained the order from the commander-in-chief not to allow the advancement of the American fleet to the military bases of India”

"We encircled them and aimed the missiles at the 'Enterprise'. We had blocked their way and didn't allow them to head anywhere, neither to Karachi, nor to Chittagong or Dhaka".

The Soviet ships had small range rockets (only upto 300 KM). Therefore, to hold the opponent under the range, commanders ran risks of going as near to the enemy as possible.

"The Chief Commander had ordered me to lift the submarines and bring them to the surface so that it can be pictured by the American spy satellites or can be seen by the American Navy!' It was done to demonstrate, that we had all the needed things in Indian Ocean, including the nuclear submarines. I had lifted them, and they recognized it. Then, we intercepted the American communication. The commander of the Carrier Battle Group was then the counter-admiral Dimon Gordon. He sent the report to the 7th American Fleet Commander: 'Sir, we are too late. There are Russian nuclear submarines here, and a big collection of battleships'.

Americans returned and couldn't do anything. Soviet Union had also threatened China that, if they ever opened a front against India on its border, they will receive a tough response from North. Russia made sure nothing distracted India from its goal. There were there for us when war started, and they were there until the wreckage of the war had been cleaned. Wreckage...well that wreckage was no ordinary wreckage it was wreckage made of 'gold', literally. But let me leave that story for some other day, some other post. 

Russia's contributions to India's security: FGFA, Sukhoi Su 30MKI, Brahmos, T90, INS Chakra, INS Vikramaditya.

Its 2013 now, things have changed. Countries once determined to destroy us are eager to do business with India, sign nuclear pacts and look at us to take care of things in the region. It is so funny. Americans once wanted the Chinese to contain India, now they want us to contain China. Iran readied its jets to hit India in favour of Americans, now Iran looks to India to keep its economy going amid sanctions imposed by United States. Selfishness drives the globe. But one thing has not changed. The friendship India and Russia share. Never once in so many decades Russia and India shared a bitter moment. So if 'others' ever wonder why we favour Russian equipment over theirs, they should understand that probably it is because Indians mean more than business. We look for people we can trust, count on. 

All I hope is that if someday Russia needs India the way we needed them back in '71, India should be able to do that just fine.      

           

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Indian Defence: My Review For The Army - I

I do not know if I can classify 2013 as a good or a bad year for the Indian Defence, but for one thing, It sure has been an extreme year. One on hand lie the magnificent achievements like activation of the miniature nuclear reactor of INS Arihant, launch of the indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant and approval or the all new Mountain Strike Corps, and on the other hand there were unfortunate events like blast and subsequent sinking of INS Sindhurakshak and crashing of Mi 17 V5 chopper during Uttaranchal flood relief operation. All these developments combined with the increased incursions and aggressions at the LAC and LOC make this a good time for a solid review of the Indian security scenario. 

M777 ultralight Howitzer

What's happened, has happened. It's time to look into the future. Army is getting the brand new Mountain Strike corps,going to get its critically low tank fired munitions replenished with the BDL making Invar missiles for T 90, testing the mk 2 version of Arjun tanks and Naag missiles, all set to receive the 145 ultra light howitzers and...well, this is quite a list. It looks all good to go but if you were to take a closer look, its not all that rosy. To start with, 145 M777s will not really give us any edge. LAC is 4000 Kilo meters long and the Chinese have a massive build up near the border both in terms or men and infrastructure. How much area can 145 howitzers protect with a range of 40-45 Kilo meters? Army ordered these guns just to fill the most crucial pockets the LAC. They will merely be tactical deterrents, and by no means will be able to add teeth to the offensive capabilities. Next, the decision to procure Invar ammunition for the T 90 tanks also doesn't seem to be very impressive. Invar is a 2nd generation missile and its range is limited. It may not b

e very effective against enemy tanks like the Al-Khalid from a long distance. I'm no expert, and correct me if you must, but something on the lines of LAHAT missile would have been a better choice.  And once again, we are only filling the gaps which should have not been there anyway, by buying these missiles. They are nothing new, nothing extra. They don't improve the army over what it was in any way. 

          LAHAT                                                Invar

Arjun, I must say is a very commendable tank as far as the theory goes, and the story of improved Naag anti tank missiles also looks good, but then they are merely in the testing phase. With every defence project being entangled in the red tape and clearances, who knows when they will actually reach the production line, and history tells us better than to have faith in DRDO deadlines. Same goes the story with the cherished new Mountain strike corps. What should have been done a decade ago is being done now and much has changed in these ten years. Although it is a welcomed move and will surely make the Indian presence on LAC underscored, let it be known that even after the formation of the corps, the Indian men will still be outnumbered in the ratio of 1:3 by the Chinese side in the event of an aggression. The Chinese have rail networks very close to the LAC, and we hardly have anything in the name of roads. And things in India take a long time to change. In a nutshell, most of the procurements are not enhancing the Army further, but simply filling gaps left in the past.

The new meaner look of the MARCOS in 2013 (Left).
Right: Old Look. Note the difference in the guns.

Not all is bad though, there are indeed a few things we can be happy about. Not very highlighted, but not any less important has been the quick induction of the Israeli Tavor 21 rifles with the special forces. And this brings the focus on how the Indian special forces have been modernized in recent years. With NSG and Marcos already taking the lead in adopting more sophisticated weapons, outfit and warfare techniques, it sure looks that at least the covert operations capability will be in place. Another positive development has been the nod from defence ministry to the army to raise its own air strike corps and just at the right time as the HAL Rudra is already set to join the Army now. Agni 5's second test launch is only days away now. One may criticize DRDO for any other project but when it comes to missiles, they are simply unmatched. Akash SAM, Prithvi air defence, Astra AAM - they are all doing amazingly well. 

So as with any road to development, there have been ups and down, some decisions have been delayed, while some have turned out to be just fine. Numbers aside, in war you never know if one man will take down five or if even ten men will be able take down one.                

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