Dragon's aggression gone too far? - The Diaoyu Dispute

Can a group of islands, no matter how important, be worth all the trouble China and Japan are getting into? Territorial claims and controversies are nothing new when it comes to China- Be it Philippines, Taiwan, India or Vietnam, the Chinese have always preferred laying claims to trivial pieces of rocks with a pinch of unwarranted aggression added to their taste over the warmth and benefits of cordial relationships with the neighbors. And we all had pretty much gotten used to that now haven’t we? Aggressive patrols, denying visas and releasing intimidating comments were common weapons for Chinese leadership to reinforce their claims on what they consider is theirs by whatever logic that suits them. But the recent move of China, to announce the air defense identification zone over the region encompassing the Diaoyu Islands has packed a new punch in this old game. It’s like a brand new “Warmongering 2.0” with improved aggression promising a far more interesting global response and consequences. It’s important indeed to notice the difference in Chinese stance here.  For example, in Indian context, the Chinese often make inroads into Indian Territory to highlights their claims in regions like daulat beg oldi and aksai chin. But then the Indians launch counter patrols and both sides eventually cool down and go back to the status quo. Same was the story with Japan earlier, the Chinese would sneak peek into the Diaoyu waters when the Japanese were not looking and Japan would do the same, and the same chain of events kept getting repeated with monotonous statements like “China urges Japan to respect China’s sovereignty” etc- without any remarkable escalation.

So what does it tell you? The move tells you about China’s exponentially enhanced confidence in its military capability. A child can tell you that the natural response of Japan will be to reject the restrictions imposed by China through this Air defense zone and they will keep flying their military jets into the controversial airspace. It is very much probable that any military adventure in this region can now quickly escalate into “an act of war”. Let get involved in the hypothetic. If history is any aid, it is quite reasonable to assume that Japan will not be the first one to take any military action. In worst case scenario, the Chinese will shoot down a Japanese surveillance drone or something to which the Japanese will pay back in kind. This is something the Chinese leadership must have already thought about while declaring this air defense zone. Their decision to go ahead with this declaration anyway, shows how confident they are of being able to handle any kind of military aggression in this area. And we have hints in this regard – they displayed their nuclear submarine fleet for the first time in 40 years! The Chinese jets stole the show at Dubai air show. Operating three jets simultaneously from the Air craft carrier Liaoning etc…they have all been subtle hints that the Chinese are confident of their military prowess in the area.

But there’s more to this love story. China is confident of handling Japan alright, but has it considered the presence of Uncle Sam enough? After the World War 2, United States disarmed Japan and prohibited it from keeping its own defense forces, and also signed a document which allowed the United States to maintain military bases all over Japan. After half a century, this treaty has proved to be a boon for the Japan. Japan and United States are closer than ever and external security of Japan is now almost officially the responsibility of Washington itself. Anyway, important point is that, Diaoyu islands are also a part of the region which was vowed to be protected by the Americans under the treaty of 1952. Not only this means that US considers diaoyu islands an integral part of Japan, but it also signifies that any action unilaterally taken by China on diaoyu islands will also be an action directly against the United States. The Eagle has wasted no time in registering firm opposition to this move. Even before the United States policy makers could formally issue statements against the ADIZ set up by China, two B-52 bombers had already flown over the ADIZ without informing Beijing about their presence. South Korean  and Japanese aircrafts followed the act and Japanese coast guard carried on with their usual patrols along the Diaoyu coastline. It will be hard to say if B-52 bombers were flown through the ADIZ merely to send a stern message to the dragon to not cross the line, or if it was done to check any additional deployments and infrastructure put up in place by China to enforce the guidelines of ADIZ.

Conclusion? Perhaps China needs to reconsider its stance. You should play with fire when you know you can handle the heat. Even if China does acquire the islands by force, (well…) it will have to pay the price of upsetting all its neighbours. And ask any five year old boy, is it worth all this trouble? Maybe The Socialists need to see the long term effects of their aggression. They should know that unnecessary quibbling over a small group of rocks is not worth putting the years of hard work in improving the foreign relations into garbage bin. And whoa!...that too when they know that their entire economy is based on trade with the countries they are messing with. I learnt it while playing chess – one wrong move, and the game wraps up even before you know it.